At the Break: MLB 2010 vs. 2009

FROM THE BILL CHUCK FILES…
By Baseball Newstalgist, Bill Chuck

Here is my take. Please leave your opinions on the race at the break in the Comments section on Billy-Ball.com.

MLB Standings 2010 at the break

AL EAST	W	L	PCT	GB	RUN DIFF
NY Yankees	56	32	.636	-	+117
Tampa Bay	54	34	.614	2	+105
Boston	51	37	.580	5	+73
Toronto	44	45	.494	12.5	-3
Baltimore	29	59	.330	27	-142
AL CENTRAL	W	L	PCT	GB	RUN DIFF
Chicago Sox	49	38	.563	-	+30
Detroit	48	38	.558	.5	+11
Minnesota	46	42	.523	3.5	+36
Kansas City	39	49	.443	10.5	-52
Cleveland	34	54	.386	15.5	-80
AL WEST	W	L	PCT	GB	RUN DIFF
Texas	50	38	.568	-	+74
LA Angels	47	44	.516	4.5	-24
Oakland	43	46	.483	7.5	+4
Seattle	35	53	.398	15	-79
NL EAST	W	L	PCT	GB	RUN DIFF
Atlanta	52	36	.591	-	+69
NY Mets	48	40	.545	4	+49
Philadelphia	47	40	.540	4.5	+48
Florida	42	46	.477	10	+20
Washington	39	50	.438	13.5	-52
NL CENTRAL	W	L	PCT	GB	RUN DIFF
Cincinnati	49	41	.544	-	+45
St. Louis	47	41	.534	1	+59
Milwaukee	40	49	.449	8.5	-54
Chicago Cubs	39	50	.438	9.5	-45
Houston	36	53	.404	12.5	-123
Pittsburgh	30	58	.341	18	-194
NL WEST	W	L	PCT	GB	RUN DIFF
San Diego	51	37	.580	-	+72
LA Dodgers	49	39	.557	2	+30
Colorado	49	39	.557	2	+45
San Francisco	47	41	.534	4	+61
Arizona	34	55	.382	17.5	-100

MLB Standings 2009 at the break

AL EAST		W		L		PCT		GB	RUN DIFF
Boston	54		34		.614		-			+85
NY Yankees	51		37		.580		3			+60
Tampa Bay	48		41		.539		6.5			+76
Toronto	44		46		.489		11			+31
Baltimore	40		48		.455		14			-58
AL CENTRAL		W		L		PCT		GB	RUN DIFF
Detroit	48		39		.552		-			+32
Chicago Sox	45		43		.511		3.5			+2
Minnesota	45		44		.506		4			+29
Kansas City	37		51		.420		11.5			-78
Cleveland	35		54		.393		14			-47
AL WEST		W		L		PCT		GB	RUN DIFF
LA Angels	49		37		.570		-			+32
Texas	48		39		.552		1.5			+34
Seattle	46		42		.523		4			-18
Oakland	37		49		.430		12			-40
NL EAST		W		L		PCT		GB	RUN DIFF
Philadelphia	48		38		.558		-			+48
Florida	46		44		.511		4			-13
Atlanta	43		45		.489		6			-6
NY Mets	42		45		.483		6.5			-33
Washington	26		61		.299		22.5			-108
NL CENTRAL		W		L		PCT		GB	RUN DIFF
St. Louis	49		42		.538		-			+28
Milwaukee	45		43		.511		2.5			-5
Chicago Cubs	43		43		.500		3			+2
Houston	44		44		.500		3.5			-30
Cincinnati	42		45		.483		5			-49
Pittsburgh	38		50		.432		9.5			-11
NL WEST		W		L		PCT		GB	RUN DIFF
LA Dodgers	56		32		.636		-			+105
San Francisco	49		39		.557		7			+44
Colorado	47		41		.534		9			+37
Arizona	38		51		.427		18.5			-39
San Diego	36		52		.409		20			-110

AL East

There are a number of things to look at when you check out the standing in this division, starting with the first place team. You may take for granted that the Yankees finish first, however the third place Red Sox has been in first at the break for five straight years (beginning in 2005). In fact, the last time Boston was in third place at the All-Star break was in 2000 when the club was 43-41 and 2.5 games behind the Yankees and Blue Jays who were tied for first.

The key differentiating number for the Yankees is the run differential in which the Yanks are just about double what they were last season. As you can see, pretty consistently (Angels are a big exception) run differential is a key factor. What you can’t see from my chart, although you can see if you go to the standings on ESPN, is that the big difference for the Yankees is that this year they have allowed 352 runs, last year, 435.

Boston scored 465 runs last year at the break and allowed 380, while this year the numbers are 481/408. My hunch is that their run prevention effort has been less affected by injuries than by the poor pitching of everyone on the staff other than Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, and Daniel Bard.

Tampa has had a slide and is already in recovery mode. The break will do this young group of studs in their rotation a lot of good. Don’t be surprised if they are involved in some big name trades knowing they have Jeremy Hellickson ready to fill a spot in the rotation.

Toronto has virtually the same record, but this year without Roy Halladay. Good job by Cito Gaston and company.

The Orioles are simply awful. Good luck to Buck Showalter who appears to be ready to manage the team following the All-Star Break.

IMHO: The current standings are the way the season will end with the Rays as the AL Wild Card team.

AL Central

The big surprise has got to be the incredible comeback by the White Sox. After a four-game sweep over the Los Angeles Angels and a three-game sweep of the Royals, the Sox have won eight straight and moved into first place. On June 9, they were 25-33, 9.5 games out of first. The big question now is what will GM Kenny Williams do to compensate for the season-ending injury to Jake Peavy. I suspect him to be heavily involved in Roy Oswalt discussions.

The Tigers are a mixed bag. To me Brennan Boesch is the Rookie of the Year and with Austin Jackson, they are in good shape for the future. I just know they need pitching this year, but then again who doesn’t?

Minnesota has slumped lately, as the JM Twins of Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau are both injured. They are a very good second half team and now they have the money to bring in support.

The Royals are worth mentioning as they have only scored 385 runs in spite of the fact that their .282 team batting average leads the AL. They get lots and lots of singles.

Cleveland is too busy mourning LeBron James to notice how awful their baseball team is.

IMHO: This division will end up being between these top three teams but a lot has to do with what deals are made to plug the leaks. All three GMs are watching BP to learn what not to do. I go with the Twins in Game 163.

AL West

WYSIWYG in the West. Texas can hit and with the addition of Cliff Lee have started putting together a team to compete in the post-season. They were missing a top of the rotation starter and now that slot has been filled.

I can tell you, I do not understand the Angels. They let a lot of key components go away during the off-season and now have players that are too young in some positions and too old in others. Mike Scioscia is doing another really good job in spite of it.

There is really nothing much else to talk about in this division other than the Mariners broke my heart and that the A’s have moved from an under achiever in run differential to just over breaking even. Be interesting to see what they get for Ben Sheets.

IMHO: Texas will be the only team to finish over .500 in the AL West.

NL East

Sometimes run differential doesn’t tell you the story. Take the case of the Phillies who have the exact same run differential this year as last while last year they were in first and this year they are in third, and in trouble. The Phils have scored from fewer runs and allowed 50 fewer runs. The Phils really need to get healthy.

The story in this division is Cox’s Army, as the Braves seem absolutely intent on making sure Bobby Cox has an elongated final season. Run differential is the story here with a 75 run differential with improvements on prevention and production.

While the Braves turnaround is huge, the 82 run differential for the Mets is even greater, allowing 61 fewer runs. They really need another starter because no one other than Johan Santana is as trustworthy as Jerry Manuel would like.

The Marlins are about where they should be. Feh.

No team has improved as much as the Nationals, and I think we are only seeing the beginning. They resemble the start of the turnaround we saw from the Rays a few years ago. They have 13 more wins at the break than they did last year.

IMHO: The Braves I think will stay on top, but it will be the Phils who end up being a part of the huge battle for the Wild Card slot.

NL Central

I love this Reds team that has had a 94 run turnaround in runs differential. I tell you though, the average ERA in the majors at this point is 4.16 and the Reds have a 4.20 team ERA and that can only lead to trouble. I also don’t trust manager Dusty Baker to not overuse a pitching staff. On that topic, Edinson Volquez (Tommy John surgery) will return to the Reds rotation right after the All-Star break.

The Cardinals are scuffling a bit, but I have faith in Dave Duncan and his pitchers.

The remaining four teams will all fight to not lose 100 games and should all be heavily involved in trades this month.

IMHO: The Reds and the Cards will go down to the wire and the team that doesn’t finish first will be involved in the Wild Card race. I would not be surprised to see both teams in the postseason.

NL West

From worst to first, the San Diego Padres are 15 games better than last season and you have to now accept that they are for real. They possess THE bullpen in baseball. Their top five guys in the pen have given up less than 50 walks this season and only 59 runs. Mat Latos is proving to be one of the best pitchers in baseball although starter Jon Garland has started to fade. His ERA of 3.56 is good, but not so good considering that at the end of May it was 2.15.

Hot on their heels are the Rockies and the Dodgers, although it feels hotter from Colorado. Joe Torre makes his team competitive, despite the marital strife from above, but did you see their drop in differential? The McCourts, Manny B Manny and Matt Kemp will probably push Torre to not returning to LA after the season.

Before you rule out the Giants, picture Ryan Braun in their lineup. This is the team that can turnaround by the trading deadline.

The Diamondbacks are so bad that besides the 61 runs they dropped in run differential from last season, you can add another 61 runs before the season is done.

IMHO: In a four-team scramble, I’m taking the Rox with the rest of the division close behind and battling for the Wild Card slot.

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Tagged as: Arizona Diamondbacks, Atlanta Braves, Austin Jackson, Baltimore Orioles, Ben Sheets, Bobby Cox, Boston Red Sox, Brennan Boesch, Buck Showalter, Chicago Cubs, Chicago White Sox, Cincinnati Reds, Cito Gaston, Clay Buchholz, Cleveland Indians, Cliff Lee, Colorado Rockies, Daniel Bard, Dave Duncan, Detroit Tigers, Dusty Baker, Edinson Volquez, Florida Marlins, Frank McCourt, Houston Astros, Jaime McCourt, Jake Peavy, Jeremy Hellickson, Jerry Manuel, Joe Mauer, Joe Torre, Johan Santana, Jon Garland, Jon Lester, Justin Morneau, Kansas City Royals, Kenny Williams, LeBron James, Los Angeles Angels, Los Angeles Dodgers, Manny Ramirez, Mat Latos, Matt Kemp, Mike Scioscia, Milwaukee Brewers, Minnesota Twins, New York Mets, New York Yankees, Oakland A’s, Philadelphia Phillies, Pittsburgh Pirates, Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt, Ryan Braun, San Diego Padres, San Francisco Giants, Seattle Mariners, St. Louis Cardinals, Tampa Bay Rays, Texas Rangers, Toronto Blue Jays, Washington Nationals